Economic Snapshot & Outlook 2024
- Andrew Millar
- Jul 8
- 3 min read
Updated: Jul 9
Mekong Strategic Capital (MSC)
Report Description
Summary
The Economic Snapshot & Outlook 2024 assesses Cambodia’s economic trajectory and concludes that the downturn, which began in the second half of 2022, had 'bottomed out' by mid‑2024, and the economy is now on a modest recovery path.
The report underscores that while the new Cambodian government has shown strength, additional fiscal stimulus could enhance momentum:
Economic Downturn Bottomed in 1H 2024: The prolonged slowdown that began in mid‑2022, driven by global liquidity tightening and a sharp contraction in garment exports, has now stabilised, with modest recovery underway in the second half of 2024.
Actual GDP Growth in 2023 Closer to ~2%: MSC estimates that real GDP growth was around 2 per cent, significantly below the official 5 per cent figure, citing weak indicators such as sluggish domestic demand, low tax receipts, constrained bank lending, rising loan arrears and flat net exports (excluding solar).
Garment Exports Rebounding Strongly: Exports of clothing surged over 22 per cent in early 2024 (excluding solar/diode exports), providing a vital lift to the economy, and expected to spill over into domestic demand.
Financial Sector Improvement: Liquidity has rebounded sharply, deposits grew nearly 20 per cent in the first half of 2024, and interest rates are peaking and likely to decline. MSC projects non‑performing loans should start to fall by year‑end.
Tourism Recovery Still Cautious: After disappointing performance in early 2024, tourism is expected to pick up in late 2024, supported by increased flight capacity and cheaper fares.
Policy & Investment Outlook: Ongoing infrastructure investment and diversification in manufacturing are seen as growth anchors. MSC also suggests that the new government, although performing well, should consider additional fiscal stimulus to sustain momentum amid rising.
Economic Outlook
The report presents a cautiously optimistic outlook for Cambodia’s economy in the second half of 2024 and beyond.
Following nearly two years of slowdown, key indicators now suggest the worst has passed, with growth stabilising and recovery underway. Stronger garment exports, improved financial sector liquidity, and anticipated gains in tourism are expected to drive momentum through late 2024.
Continued infrastructure investment and manufacturing diversification also support the medium-term trajectory.
However, MSC warns that global uncertainty, including rising geopolitical risks and external demand volatility, could temper recovery. To strengthen the rebound, the report recommends that the Cambodian government consider targeted fiscal stimulus and proactive policy measures to accelerate private sector confidence and domestic consumption.
MSC Economic Snapshot & Outlook Series
The MSC Economic Snapshot & Outlook series provides concise, data-driven assessments of Cambodia’s economic performance and near-term prospects.
Published regularly by Mekong Strategic Capital, each edition analyses key trends, such as GDP growth, exports, tourism and financial stability, while identifying turning points in the economy.
The series aims to offer clear, pragmatic forecasts grounded in local insight, often diverging from official estimates. It is widely used by investors, analysts and policymakers seeking a realistic view of Cambodia’s economic trajectory and emerging risks.
About Mekong Strategic Capital (MSC)
Founded in 2014 by former banking executives John McGinley and Stephen Higgins, Mekong Strategic Capital (MSC) is a Phnom Penh–based investment and advisory firm operating across the Greater Mekong region.
The firm specialises in corporate finance (M&A, capital raising, strategic advisory), investment management (in financial services, tech, infrastructure, renewable energy and real estate), and a growing climate finance practice, reflecting its commitment to sustainable investing.
Over the past decade, MSC has built deep regional networks and become a trusted partner in landmark transactions, including major deals within Cambodia’s banking sector and ventures in sustainable development.